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Beryl 4pm update 7/7/24

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 37

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024

400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO BRING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING

AND STRONG WINDS TO TEXAS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.8N 95.5W

ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS

ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm

Warning for northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el

Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.


The Storm Surge Watch from North of Baffin Bay, Texas to North

Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore has been

discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine

Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston

Bay


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio

Grande

* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected within the warning area.


A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.


For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was

located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Beryl is

moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This

general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn

toward the north forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the

center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas

coast early Monday. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move

farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and

Tuesday.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to

become a hurricane again tonight. Additional strengthening is

expected before Beryl reaches the Texas coast early Monday.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches)

based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,

and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.


WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area by early Monday. Winds are first expected to reach tropical

storm strength by late today, making outdoor preparations difficult

or dangerous.


Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by

early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight.


Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm

warning areas in south Texas starting within the next few hours.


Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm

warning area along the upper Texas coast early Monday.


STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft

Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft

San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft

Galveston Bay...4-6 ft

Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...3-5 ft

High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the

relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary

greatly over short distances. For information specific to your

area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.


For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.


RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts

of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper

Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through Monday night.

Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated

major river flooding is expected.


For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National

Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available and the Flash Flood Risk


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper

Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas into Louisiana

and Arkansas on Monday.


SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern

Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day

or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your

local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.


$$

Forecaster Blake

Kommentare


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